This challenge is closed. Cadet Barone would not change his choice. Many would agree, but the challenge is actually a rewording of the now famous Monty Hall Problem posed in the early 1990's, a puzzle that has provoked much discussion amongst those in the not unrelated fields of probabilistics, decision science, and gambling. It may be fair to say that there is no general agreement--some parties maintain that there is no reason to change (Barone among them), while others assert that the prudent thing to do is switch one's choice. As far as I can see, though, you get a fifity-fifty shot of walking home with a goat. (Unless you don't mind a goat in the back seat of your car.)
Here's a new challenge:
You are a contestant in the NJROTC Game of Life. You have to choose one of three doors. Behind the winning door is...a brand new car! Behind the other two doors are goats. (If you are still trying to figure this out, you don't want a goat!) You chose door number two. The game show host then opens door number one, behind which is a goat, he then asks you if you'd like to change your door choice.
Here's the question: Is it to you advantage to change? Explain.
This challenge expires at the welcome back picnic. Good luck!
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ReplyDeleteSwitch because to start with, with 3 doors I had a 33.33% chance of picking the right door on the first try. Because one of the doors is now out of the way it's more likely it's in the other door than my first choice. There's a 66.66% chance that the car is in the other door. It's called the Monty Hall problem.
DeleteOn a slightly unrelated not: After answering the first time my brother began to watch Monty Python and I remembered reading something about Monty Something having to do with that sort of probability question. So I looked into it and changed my answer.